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Even by Newcastle United’s standards, Wednesday’s Champions League exit was a painful one. It will take time to process and to compute.

Although progression in Europe’s elite tournament was not in Newcastle’s own hands against AC Milan at St James’ Park, ensuring they would still be in continental competition in the new year was.

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At one stage, Newcastle were even set to progress out of Group F — the so-called ‘group of death’ — in second place and into the last 16 of the Champions League. Then they were finishing third and dropping into the Europa League. By full time, having thrown away a lead to lose 2-1, they were fourth and out of Europe altogether.

Borussia Dortmund and Paris Saint-Germain have advanced in the Champions League, while Milan have been demoted into the Europa League. Newcastle, on the other hand, are having to digest their European elimination and its far-reaching financial ramifications.

Here, The Athletic outlines what it means for Newcastle for January and beyond…

How much would Newcastle have earned if they had reached the knockout stage?

At the risk of compounding supporters’ misery, they stood to earn a significant amount, which could have materially affected their plans for the January transfer window and beyond.

This is all a bit technical and complicated, but stick with me. Just for progressing from the group, each club receives €9.6million (£8.4m; $10.4m) in prize money. That does not include bonuses for group-stage victories, which are worth €2.8m each; draws are worth €930,000 each.

Further progression through the tournament is even more lucrative, with qualification for the quarter-finals delivering €10.6m, the semi-finals €12.5m, and the final €15.5m. The overall winners receive an additional €4.5m.

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That does not account for the extra matchday income that would come from at least one further home fixture.

What’s more, every club receives broadcast revenue, which is partly merit-based and would have increased the further Newcastle had advanced.

While it is impossible to calculate the exact figure Newcastle’s elimination has cost them financially given the TV payments are changeable and determined by several factors, at the very least they have foregone an additional £12m to £15m.

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That conservative figure would only have risen had they progressed further, with Manchester City citing their Champions League victory as being the key factor in their broadcast revenues jumping by £50.4m year on year to £299.4m last season.

Newcastle, meanwhile, were 12th in the Premier League for broadcast revenue in 2021-22, receiving £124m, barely half of Manchester City’s for that campaign. Newcastle’s broadcast revenue will have risen for 2022-23 (their accounts have yet to be released) given their fourth-placed finish and the volume of their matches that were televised, but it will still be significantly lower than English clubs who were in the Champions League last season.

How much did they earn from the Champions League this season?

A “transformational” amount, according to Kieran Maguire, football finance lecturer at the University of Liverpool and host of the Price of Football podcast. He estimated that, by even reaching the Champions League, Newcastle’s revenue would increase by “minimum £30m”.

For even featuring in the group stage, clubs receive €15.6m. Newcastle also registered a win against PSG, as well as draws in Milan and Paris.

Newcastle therefore accrued £17.46m in prize money, while they will likely receive a similar figure on top of that from their allocation of the broadcast revenue.

The third and final element by which UEFA distributes Champions League income is based on a club’s European “coefficient”. The lowest-ranked team earns a single share worth €1.137m, while the top-ranked club receives 32 times that. Newcastle would be towards the lower end of the scale, if not bottom, given they have not featured in Europe in any of the previous 10 seasons upon which the coefficients are set.

Then there were the three sold-out home fixtures in the group stage, worth several million to the club in matchday revenue.

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Newcastle’s turnover of £180m in 2021-22 was the 11th-highest in the Premier League. Two seasons on, that figure is likely to have increased by around 50 per cent, if not more, largely due to the Champions League.

Will they have saved money from possible player bonuses?

Last season, Newcastle’s players received a significant bonus for qualifying for the Champions League as a minimum top-10 finish had been the initial target. In 2023-24, their goals have shifted, so the bonus scheme is not as generous for finishing in the top four and progressing in Europe.

The players will still receive a performance-based bonus for even being in the Champions League, which will be dependent on how they perform in other competitions, too — though it would have been higher had they advanced further in Europe.

On the flip side, most commercial deals pay out higher amounts for clubs progressing in competitions. Newcastle will receive additional money from their sponsors for being in the Champions League, but it is likely they would have triggered additional payments had they advanced deeper.

Regardless of bonuses, Newcastle have received more from participating in the Champions League than they will pay out in bonuses to players and the same would have been true had they gone further in the competition.

What does it mean for their FFP ceiling?

Qualifying for the Champions League this season eased Newcastle’s concerns and increased their short-to-medium-term budget, but the restrictions remain.

“We have to be very careful and analytical,” Amanda Staveley, the co-owner, said last season. “Financial fair play (FFP) has guided a lot of our transfer policy. We couldn’t afford to have a dud player.”

That sentiment still applies.

Progression from the group stages would have brought at least another £12m to £15m, which would have lifted the FFP ceiling further.

What does that mean for January?

Newcastle have “a little bit of flexibility” in the budget when it comes to January according to their sporting director, Dan Ashworth, but they will have to be “quite creative”. Newcastle do not envisage “a large number of players coming in”, even if they intend “to be active”.

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Lewis Hall arrived from Chelsea in August on loan with an obligation to buy, primarily because Newcastle were so close to their FFP limit. The club attempt to do the majority of their business during summer windows but are willing to bring future spending forward for the right player, as they did last January with the £40m purchase of Anthony Gordon.

Newcastle are considering a wide variety of options to maximise their limited budget, including loans with options and obligations.

Once Sandro Tonali was suspended for 10 months in October for gambling, Newcastle’s priorities turned towards recruiting another midfielder. Manchester City’s Kalvin Phillips is of keen interest on loan, though he is one of several options. Al Hilal’s Ruben Neves is not a target, despite the Portuguese midfielder being admired at St James’, and the shared majority ownership of the two clubs through Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF).

The original blueprint for next month also included a centre-back and a forward potentially being sought.

However, Newcastle’s injury crisis means that transfer plans are constantly being tinkered with and Eddie Howe, the head coach, has admitted the club may be “reactive” to their short-term needs. If there is an area of his squad which is beset by absentees come the turn of the year, Newcastle may look to fill their second Premier League loan slot or bring in players on temporary deals from Europe to augment it.

Following Nick Pope’s shoulder surgery, goalkeeper has become a possible position for Newcastle to bolster, when previously another shot-stopper was not even a consideration for the mid-season window.

Progression in the Champions League may have allowed Newcastle to consider a greater volume of permanent acquisitions in January, or higher-value ones, or to loosen their strict wage structure.

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How much could they have earned by dropping into the Europa League?

Prize money in the Europa League is a fraction of what is offered in the Champions League, but the additional income would still have been consequential.

Europe’s second-tier tournament splits its revenue in an identical manner to the premier competition — prize money, broadcast income and coefficient-based payments — but the figures are significantly lower.

By dropping into the Europa League, Newcastle would have received €500,000. Progression to the round of 16 is worth €1.2m, to the quarter-finals it is €1.8m, to the semi-finals it is €2.8m, and to the final it is €4.6m. The winners also receive an additional €4m.

Newcastle would also have generated additional matchday revenue from playing at least one further home match in Europe.

So finishing third in Group F and qualifying, as opposed to fourth and not qualifying, would have been worth at least a few million to Newcastle, quickly rising to an eight-figure sum if they had progressed further in the Europa League.

How does all this compare to Premier League prize money?

European football definitely provided a welcome boost to Newcastle’s revenue.

In 2021-22, Newcastle received £126.7m in broadcast revenue from the Premier League, less than half that of Liverpool (£261m), who were in the Champions League, and only the 12th-highest figure in the Premier League.

Tottenham Hotspur, who were fourth that season, were handed £146.1m by the Premier League. While official figures have yet to be released for 2022-23, Newcastle are likely to have received more than Spurs’ figure for finishing fourth because last season was the first campaign of the new overseas TV rights deals.

Regardless of their performance in Europe, income from the Premier League will provide the majority of Newcastle’s broadcast income. Newcastle are likely to receive between £130m and £160m from the Premier League depending on their finishing position and how many times they are shown on TV in the UK in 2023-24.

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How does it compare to Carabao Cup and FA Cup prize money?

Winning domestic trophies is about glory and prestige rather than finances.

Newcastle have accumulated just £25,000 in prize money from their Carabao Cup victories over Manchester City and Manchester United. Even if they go one better than last season and lift the trophy, they will ‘only’ amass a further £150,000, including a £100,000 bonus for winning the final.

The FA Cup is more lucrative, but not at a level that will dramatically change Newcastle’s FFP landscape.

Winning sides in the third round of that competition receive £105,000 and, should Newcastle go on to lift the trophy, they will take home around £3.9m, including £2m for triumphing at Wembley.

(Top photo: Harriet Massey/Newcastle United via Getty Images)

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